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[Sportsbook’s Choice] 2018 Super Bowl ATS Pick

The New England Patriots will compete once more for the Super Bowl title on February 4, but despite being the defending champions there are many who believe the Philadelphia Eagles will give them a run for their money. Check out what we believe the better 2018 Super Bowl against the spread pick is.

Patriots vs Eagles Point Spread Analysis and ATS Pick

The early line opened at -6 favoring the Patriots, but quickly moved to -5.5 or -5 a most online sportsbooks. Expect some further line movement as bets come in up until game time.

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The point spread movement on this particular game is in great part determined by the public betting money. The Super Bowl takes in well over $100 million in betting money and it affects how sportsbooks adjust their lines on the game.

New England Patriots Betting

If you’ve bet against the spread this season, betting on the Patriots would have probably made you a lot of money as New England finished the season 11-5 ATS.

In the playoffs, however, the Patriots have gone 1-1 ATS but their regular season record should give you a good idea whether if betting on them has value at the current point spread.

The line currently favors them by five points, which means New England has to win by more than 5 points if they’re to cover the spread and you win your bet.

That the line moved down a point has to do with many factors, but presumably concern over Tom Brady’s hand injury, Rob Gronkowski’s injury of his own, and betting on the Eagles has a lot of weight in the matter.

However, if Brady and Gronkowski are fully healthy by game time it’s hard to believe the Patriots won’t cover the spread. There’s still more than a week left for them to recover and plenty of time for the line to move yet again as more is known.

Regardless, even if Brady is not playing at 100% or that Gronk doesn’t play, there is still another factor which should be obvious that could also affect New England’s chances of covering the spread which is their defense.

The Patriots defense doesn’t seem to garner too much respect despite being up there among the top defenses in the nation. In fact, their defense is tough as nails, especially in road games when they’ve allowed just 16.1 points per game and rank in the 2th spot.

New England also has a good run at beating the spread with a 10-2 ATS record over their last 12 games. If you’re considering taking them, it should also give you some certainty that they’ve covered 13 consecutive games when the line favors them by 7 points or less.

In case you need more information, the Patriots are also 20-7-3 ATS over their last 30 games again when the point spread favors them by 7 points or fewer.

Philadelphia Eagles Betting

The Eagles landed themselves in the Super Bowl. It’s a great accomplishment. It’s even better because nobody really believed they would get there.

So, it doesn’t really matter that they’re the underdogs because by this point it’s something they’re used to.

Mind you, they’ve made it despite the presence of their starting quarterback Carson Wentz and having to rely on their backup QB Nick Foles, who has surprisingly turned the Eagles into legitimate Super Bowl contenders. 

Head coach Doug Pederson’s gamble on Foles has paid off with performances such as the one against the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC Championship game when Foles threw for 352 yards and three touchdowns.

Not even the sportsbooks had faith in a Foles-led Eagles offense as the +3-point home spread reflected in both playoff games. That they’re now the 6-point underdogs against the Patriots should make you wary of betting against them.

Now that Foles has practiced over the last few weeks with the first-stringers and seems to have meshed with his receivers, he could even be the Eagles X factor for winning the game.

Nevertheless, while the offense has garnered much of the attention as of late it’s their defense that opened the doors to the Super Bowl with dominating performances against the Falcons and Vikings.

But, they face arguably their most difficult challenge ahead, trying to stop an offense led by one of the greatest quarterbacks to play the game.

If the Eagles are to cover the spread, in other words not lose by 5 points, it’s the defense’s job to pressure Brady and hope to disrupt his game enough for him to commit some mistakes.

As if this weren’t hard enough, they also need to keep track of Dion Lewis who could be an open door for Brady inflicting heavy damage because of his abilities to run and catch the ball.

The Eagles defense has allowed an average of just 8.25 yards per game in their last four games, but because these were played at home there’s no telling how they’ll fare on neutral ground.

For the time being, the Eagles don’t have to win the game if you’re betting ATS on them, they just have to stay within five points of the Patriots’ final score. 

If they can keep pressure on Brady, as they did against Case Keenum and Matt Ryan, they’ll likely cover and perhaps even win.

For the time being, if you’re siding with the Eagles your best ATS bet is to take it as soon as possible at +5.5 or +5 to get maximum value. If you’re bet is on the Patriots ATS, then maybe you should consider holding off until the Friday before the Super Bowl when all injuries are known to get a better feel for the spread. 

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