There’s just over a month left before NFL football kicks off its regular season, so it’s high time to make some predictions on how many games will each team win in each division.
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While some divisions are harder than others, and some teams tend to dominate in each, let’s take a look in this case at the AFC East.
Over/Under Projections For AFC East
Buffalo Bills
The lines have the Bills winning six games this season.
Last year, they went 7-9, which led to Rex Ryan being fired.
They’ve now hired Sean McDermott, but the problem might be that much of the roster was hired under Ryan and players could have problems adapting to McDermott’s strategy.
Buffalo has the offense to compete with most teams with players such as Tyrod Taylor, LeSean McCoy, and Sammy Watkins.
They’ve also hired wide receiver Zay Jones, who could have an immediate positive impact. He’s expected to be the rookie with the most receiving yards this season and finished his college career with 399 receptions, an FBS record, 4,279 receiving yards and 23 touchdowns.
Nevertheless, the Bills have been plagued with injuries in previous years and this seems to be their Achilles heel. Such is the case for Watkins for example, something that’s led to offensive inconsistency.
On defense, the Bills have switched from a 3-4 to a 4-3 defense, which means some players brought in during Ryan’s stint will be playing out of their natural positions.
The Bills’ first game is against the Jets, which they should win easily. They then head on the road to face the Panthers, a team McDermott really knows.
It’s around Week 6 that things might get complicated, when they compete against the Bucs and Raiders at home and road games that include the Jets, Saints, Chargers, Chiefs, and Patriots and Dolphins.
Other teams in the division have gotten better so the total wins seems about right and I’m betting the under.
Predicted Wins: UNDER 6
Miami Dolphins
The total wins is set at 7.5 games this season. This translates to the Dolphins predicted to be among the worst teams in the AFC.
This seems odd for a team that made the playoffs last season and finished with 10 wins.
Notwithstanding they didn’t add many players in free agency, they did manage to secure key positions and have kept the same team that won 10 games last year.
QB Ryan Tannehill seems to have meshed well with head coach Adam Gase, and has plenty of good receivers to push the air attack such as Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills.
The ground game should also be solid with players such as Jay Ajayi. Last year, he ripped the running game and as long as he’s healthy Miami’s strength on the ground looks good.
Miami also has an improved defense through its draft acquisitions and spent their top three picks on defensive players that they believe can have an immediate impact.
The Dolphins’ schedule also seems to favor them, with two games against the Jets prior to their bye week and a game against Buffalo which could be challenging but definitely winnable.
Even if Tannehill doesn’t really perform well this season, I don’t really think they won’t win less than eight games.
Predicted Wins: OVER 7.5
New York Jets
The line for the Jets is 4.5 games this year. They lost many of their best players through trades or free agency and most analysts expect the Jets will be among the worst, perhaps the worst, teams in the NFL this season.
Here’s how I see it, New York is starting with an inexperienced quarterback with questionable accuracy, their top running back is getting old and in the latter part of his career, and the team is actively looking to sell their best defensive players.
Running back Bilal Powell could make somewhat of a difference, but the odds are stacked against him with a supporting team as this.
First round pick safety Jamal Adams could move the needle favorably, but he has an uphill struggle if Leonard Williams, Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson don’t do their part.
The Jets’ schedule doesn’t favor them one bit with a game against the Patriots and two against the Dolphins.
Clearly, the chaos that surrounds this team doesn’t help at all and for this reason I don’t think they’ll win five games.
Predicted wins: UNDER 5
New England Patriots
The defending champions are expected to win 12.5 games this year. If you recall, last year the Pats went 14-2 and that was without Tom Brady missing the first four games. That being the case, it’s not foolhardy to believe they can win 13 games this season.
The odds of this happening get better if you also take into consideration that they’ve won no less than 12 games since 2009.
However, New England has a really tough schedule this year and it’s no secret that every team wants to take a crack at them.
Every game before their bye week is against a potential playoff team, that is except, of course, for the Jets, which are always bitter rivals nevertheless.
From early November through December 17, they’ll only have one game at Foxborough which has to be brutal for any team no matter how good they are.
The Patriots have added some great talent to its roster. Branding Cooks, Dwayne Allen and Mike Gillislee will make a difference in an already powerful offense.
And, on defense, they hired Stephon Gilmore and both Malcolm Butler and Dont’a Hightower are staying.
With increased competition against improved teams such as the Dolphins, there’s no guarantee they’ll win the division again.
And, even though I don’t believe they’ll win all 16 games as some people believe, I think they’re good for at least 12
Predicted wins: OVER 12
