Thanksgiving is all about being thankful for many things, not the least of which are the three NFL games programmed for Thursday. So, to go along with your stuffing here are my Week 12 football picks and predictions for Thanksgiving 2017.
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NFL Week 12 2017 Odds, Previews, Picks and Predictions
Vikings (8-2) at Lions (6-4)
When: November 23, 2017, 12:30 PM ET
Where: Ford Field
Spread: Vikings -3
Total: 44.5
Moneyline: Vikings -150 vs Lions +130
The Lions are all about Thanksgiving, or so it seems as they’re 5-0 ATS and 4-1 SU in games played on that day.
This includes last year, when they defeated the Minnesota Vikings on a 1.5-point spread as betting favorites.
Detroit has also won and covered in their last three games against the Vikings.
But, before you make up your mind that you’re betting on the Lions, you should know Minnesota is playing extremely well this season and this is despite not having a franchise quarterback.
The Vikings are on a six-game win streak that includes a solid defeat of the offensively prolific Rams last week, holding them to only seven points and 254 yards.
Quarterback Case Keenum has been raising eyebrows this year, throwing for 2194, 12 touchdowns, and five interceptions heading into this game.
Those numbers are important, especially because of Minnesota’s great defense that can get Keenum on the field quickly.
This being said, I don’t believe the Lions are just going to roll over in Ford Field. Though the Lions’ defense has been struggling as of late, I think they’ll be able to keep the game close and give the offense a chance of putting up points.
Vikings vs Lions Betting Trends
- Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
- Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
- Minnesota is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
- Detroit is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games
- Detroit is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Pick: The Lions will defend their home turf; though I believe the Vikings will win, it’s Detroit that covers so I’m going for the Lions at +3.
Chargers (4-6) at Cowboys (5-5)
When: November 23, 2017, 4:30 PM ET
Where: AT&T Stadium
Spread: EV
Total: 48
Moneyline: Cowboys -120 vs Chargers +100
AFC teams have proved to be the Cowboys’ lucky charm since Dak Prescott started as quarterback in 2016.
Dallas is, in fact, 5-1 ATS and SU versus AFC teams, which is the best of any team in the NFL over that span.
However, take this with a grain of salt because the Chargers are 3-1-1 ATS while on the road and 2-0 all-time versus Dallas with Philip Rivers as QB.
The Chargers also head into this match having defeated the Bills last weekend in a game that might be the straw that broke the camel’s back for Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott, who made the baffling decision of going with rookie quarterback Nathan Peterman to start the game against LA.
Getting back to the subject at hand, these two squads are evenly matched. The line opened having the Cowboys as the slight favorites, but it’s now settled at EV money which means oddsmakers don’t see a clear advantage in either team.
Nevertheless, the Cowboys seem to have an advantage which could leverage a win and it’s their running game. Dallas ranks No. 3 in rushing at home which is better than the Chargers’ No. 25-rated front seven at stopping the run.
Chargers vs Cowboys Betting Trends
- LA Chargers is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
- LA Chargers is 5-9-1 ATS in its last 15 games
- LA Chargers is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
- Dallas is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
- Dallas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
- Dallas is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games at home
Pick: Though neither team holds a significant advantage in this game, the Cowboys will make good use of their ground attack and defend their home field. Take Dallas at EV money.
Giants (2-8) at Redskins (4-6)
When: November 23, 2017, 8:30 PM ET
Where: FedExField
Spread: Redskins -7.5
Total: 44.5
Moneyline: Redskins -330 vs Giants +270
Notwithstanding the Redskins being the 7-5-point favorites, there’s something that concerns me about Kirk Cousins career 0-9 record in weekday games.
It doesn’t help that the Skins are also 0-3 ATS and SU in divisional games this year, but I guess that it’s balanced out with the Giants’ 0-7 record against all NFC teams.
New York got a respite after beating the Chiefs in Week 11 which also broke their three-game losing streak.
The Giants may also look to take advantage of the Redskins loss to the Saints last week which might have knocked the wind out of Washington’s players (the Redskins gave up a 16-point lead with just over three minutes left in the game).
The Giants win was a one-off in what’s been a horrid season that’s seen them go 1-8 in their first nine games.
Even if Cousins, and the Redskins, might not play well during the week, Washington played really well against the Saints despite having lost.
Also, Washington is getting back tight end Jordan Redd and wide receiver Terrelle Pryor which will improve their offense.
Even if it’s going to be tough to get back on the horse after the loss to the Saints, the Redskins will be up to the task.
Giants vs Redskins Betting Trends
- NY Giants is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
- NY Giants is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games
- NY Giants is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
- Washington is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
- Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games
Pick: The Giants will have the 7.5 points stuffed down their gullets. Take the Redskins at -7.5.
There you go folks, my Week 12 football picks and predictions. Have at them before heading into a turkey-induced coma.
