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Super Bowl 51 Patriots vs Falcons Early Odds Analysis

The table is set and the Patriots and Falcons will be squaring off at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas to bring home the bacon and the Vince Lombardi Trophy. The spread is close, the Over/Under is sky-high and this promises to be a game to go down in history where the two best quarterbacks in the league will determine who reigns supreme. Keep reading to get my Super Bowl 51 Patriots vs Falcons early odds analysis.

  • What: New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons
  • When: Sunday, February 5th
  • Start Time: 6:30 PM ET
  • Stadium: NRG Stadium
  • Spread: Patriots -3
  • Moneyline: Patriots
  • Game Total: 58.5

Why Betting On the Patriots is a great bet

For the get go, since this season started, the Patriots were the early favorites to reach the Super Bowl. And, lo and behold, despite missing Tom Brady for the first four games of the season, New England still made it there. Tom Brady must be having wet dreams, hoping to see Roger Goodell’s face in handing him the trophy if the Pats win.

Nevertheless, they still must win and even if New England are the 3-point favorites it’s still too close to be chanting victory. The Patriots though have the chops to say they’re the favorites. It’ll be Brady’s fifth Super Bowl ring if they win, a historic achievement that no other QB in history has accomplished.

As far as the nitty-gritty is concerned, New England’s offensive line will have to provide Brady with coverage in order for him to match Atlanta’s high-powered offense. The Falcons pass rush has been effective through the postseason and we all saw what they did against the Packers in the championship game where they kept Rodgers to a minimum. Back when the Patriots beat the Texans, Houston was successful in limiting Brady and a buck gets ten the Falcons have been watching the tape (Brady was at less than 50 percent completion and threw two interceptions vs the Texans). Ever the strategist however, Bill Belichick adjusted in their next game against the Steelers and settled on a no-huddle attack that knocked the Pittsburgh’s D off balance. Brady ended up with 384 yards and three touchdowns versus the Steelers.

You might be thinking the offense is the key to winning this game, however it’s the defense that can really make a difference. When facing the top-ranked offense in the NFL, it’s defense that can win the game not the other way around, bucko. However, as the top ranked scoring defense in the league, New England may be what’s needed to stop the Falcons at their game. Say what you will about the Patriots not facing tough offenses, and certainly not of Atlanta’s caliber, the Patriots seemed to have put a lid on Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers. With a bunch conformed with the likes of safety Devin McCourty and Malcolm Butler, the secondary kept Antonio Brown in check. And, even if the defensive front didn’t have to content with Le’Veon Bell, guys like Alan Branch stepped up to limit DeAngelo Williams.

Why Betting on the Falcons is a great bet

My apologies, because I, along with everyone else and their uncles, am going to tout Matt Brady and what he means for a Super Bowl victory. Whatever the Patriots defense can muster, they’ll have to bring that and more to the game in order to stop the Ryan led Falcons offense. That’s not to say Atlanta’s offense will be successful in the Super Bowl. In fact, since 2000, six teams with the NFL’s highest-scoring offense have reached the Super Bowl. But, only one of those six teams won the title (Saints, 2009).

If history serves a lesson, the Falcons should take heed of the age-old wisdom that defense does, in fact, win championships. Nevertheless, it’s going to take a titanic effort from New England’s defense to slow down Ryan who just put up 44 points on the Packers in the NFC championship game. Given the number of targets offered Ryan, in the likes of Mohamed Sanu, Taylor Gabriel, Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman, and, of course, Julio Jones, it’s hard to fathom how the Patriots D will be able to adjust. If there’s one battle that will be interesting to watch, it’ll be between Atlanta’s defensive coordinator, Kyle Shanahan and New England’s defensive coordinator, Matt Patricia.

Versus Pittsburgh, the Patriots got lucky because of running back De’Vonta Freeman’s early game injury that limited the Steelers attack. Versus Atlanta, they’ll probably not have the same luck and if the Falcons can rely on a one-two punch of cracking the Patriots’ run defense with Freeman and Coleman and also throwing deep passes off play action to Jones and whichever other receiver at Ryan’s disposal then the Falcons will control the game.

As for defense, the Falcons D has improved big time and is peaking at just the right time. However, Atlanta cannot allow New England to control the flow of the game and that means they’ll have to avoid running back LeGarrette Blount from grinding out yards. The Steelers managed to keep Blount in check and kept him to only 47 yards on 16 carries but the Falcons will have to kick it up a notch further if they want to get the ball in Ryan’s hands quick. Blount is a juggernaut and eats up clock time like the Cookie Monster does cookies, so it’s critical Atlanta stops him quick.

Game Prediction and My Personal Pick: Whatever the outcome, I’m going to have my eyes glued to the TV because I believe it’ll be a game to tell my kids. But, my personal pick has to go for Atlanta. Ryan will rise to the occasion and also the Vince Lombardi. Falcons win 30-21.